Lab

Research. Writing. Insights.

We publish what we learn — from primary research to investment memos to essays on what it actually takes to build and invest at the frontier.



Research Payments

Merchant Payments Observatory

Ground-level evidence from DFS Lab's Ethiopia merchant payments work, covering digital payment adoption, merchant readiness, barriers, provider dynamics, and what the findings mean for product design and policy.

Writing AI

Terra Industries and the Alchemy of AI

What Terra Industries reveals about how AI can expand the capability of hardware systems in Africa, especially where sovereignty, reliability, and critical infrastructure matter.

Writing Market Analysis

Narrative Lock-In

An argument that African venture is still organized around outdated narratives, even as the AI era and a new geopolitical environment are changing what kinds of companies can win.

Research Commerce

MSEs Onboarding Programs: Digital Selling Support for Micro and Small Enterprises

Examines what actually works when onboarding micro and small enterprises to digital selling platforms — based on survey data and program evaluations across multiple African markets.

Writing Market Analysis

Africa's S Curves

Tech adoption in Africa doesn't follow the same curves as it does in high-income markets. This piece maps the distinctive shape of African digital growth — slower early, then steeper — and explains why investors calibrated to Western timelines consistently misread the signal.

Writing Market Analysis

Africa’s 500 million person question — Part 2

A look at the growth models that could create demand for labor at scale in Africa, from tradable services to export-led sectors and new technology-enabled paths.

Writing Market Analysis

Africa’s 500 million person question — Part 1

A framing of Africa’s core jobs challenge and the question of how the continent can create demand for labor as hundreds of millions of young people enter the workforce.

Research Commerce

Rural Platform Economy: Indonesia

Co-published with RISE Indonesia. Examines how platform-based selling and digital payments are reaching rural sellers — the adoption patterns, the constraints, and the gaps that remain.

Writing Fintech

Trains, Trust, and Card Networks

Part one of a five-part series on the opportunities in African fintech infrastructure. Examines why trust — not technology — is the binding constraint in financial services expansion, and how the right infrastructure can solve for it. Co-published with The Subtext.

Writing Fintech

Indonesia's Go-Jek: Fintech at the Last Mile

An early reading of how Go-Jek was quietly becoming a financial infrastructure company — and what it implied for how platform businesses in emerging markets create durable financial services moats. Still relevant.

Research Commerce

The Hard Limits of Retail Digitalisation in Africa

Examines where digital tools fail to stick for small African retailers — the trust gaps, the workflow friction, and the economic constraints that slow adoption even when the technology works. Includes field findings.

Writing Market Analysis

Build Cyborgs, Not Androids in Africa

Why African startups should augment informal markets instead of trying to replace them with fully digital systems.

Writing Market Analysis

The B-Side of African Tech

Beyond the headline story of African fintech record valuations and capital inflows sits a quieter story — infrastructure gaps, retention challenges, and the real unit economics of serving low-income users. This essay traces both sides of the ledger honestly.

Writing Commerce

Physical Ubiquity Redux

A revisit of the idea that delivery, trust, and seller digitization can expand the reach of offline commerce and create new markets across Africa.

Writing Commerce

Who is "The African Consumer"?

A data-driven profile of African consumer behavior — who they are, how they spend, what digital services they use, and what actually drives adoption beyond smartphone penetration statistics.

Writing Commerce

Fortune at the Middle of the Pyramid

A rigorous look at the purchasing power and tech-adoption patterns of African consumers earning $4–$8 per day — the segment most consistently underserved and most frequently mischaracterized in tech investment theses.

Article Market Analysis

The Frontier Blindspot

The frameworks built in high-income markets create systematic blind spots when applied to frontier markets. This essay — the first in DFS's multi-part market analysis — identifies the specific ways investor mental models fail at the frontier, and what to use instead.

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